The Kimi Antonelli championship looks like a done deal. He has eight wins, a 102 point lead and the best car for most of the year. Even Toto Wolff has hinted that only reliability can stop him. So forget asking if he is the favourite. The real question is what would have to go wrong.
Singapore only made that harder to ignore. Max Verstappen took everything on offer, from sprint pole to the race win. Even so, Antonelli left with a podium and a bigger lead. That shows how strong his position really is. But strong does not mean safe, and the next few pages show exactly how it could slip.
When can Kimi Antonelli win the championship
The answer is Austin. After Singapore, Antonelli has 340 points. Russell has 238, Hamilton 229, Verstappen 221 and Leclerc 215. Six races remain, so 150 points are still up for grabs. One big weekend could end this whole fight.
If Antonelli outscores Russell by about 24 points in Austin, he wins the title with five races to spare. In plain words, he wins while Russell and Hamilton finish well down the order. Austin is not a sprint weekend, so only race points count. Otherwise, Mexico is the likely backup.
The only way he loses
It will not be pace. It will be breakdowns. Antonelli lost points to failures in Barcelona and at Silverstone, and a 66 point lead shrank to 25 within weeks. That is proof his season can wobble. One more weekend like that, and the whole mood changes.
Start with the engines. Every driver gets four a season, which works out at about six races each. Russell’s failed in Malaysia, so Mercedes had to fit a fifth. Replacing the energy store and control electronics stacked a 60 place grid penalty, and that is why he started from the back.
Then comes the upgrade. Under the engine catch up rules, Mercedes was judged more than 2 percent behind Red Bull and earned one upgrade. Ferrari earned two. Mercedes plans a new turbo for Austin. Antonelli could fit it there, and every extra part over the quota costs grid places.
However, he has been here before. He won the Italian Grand Prix from 19th on the grid after an engine penalty. A penalty alone will not stop this kid cause hes a capable 20 -years old with a rocket in hand. It would take a penalty and a difficult car on the same weekend.
Now the aero. The Sepang package reworked the floor around the diffuser and gave the sidepods an aggressive ramp toward the rear axle. Reports suggested almost four percent more downforce with no extra drag. However, the car understeered in slow corners and rotated badly. Russell says the package was meant to arrive with a new front wing.
That wing only came in Singapore. Mercedes changed how load is shared between the three wing elements, and it moved the car to a two element straight mode. Antonelli ran it. Russell went back to the old Baku spec, which gave Mercedes a rare like for like test.
Even so, Antonelli fought back to qualify fourth, just 0.189 seconds off pole, and finished third. Wolff says the new car is trickier to drive. Mercedes also cannot fully revert it, because the new sidepods moved some of the cooling parts and ancillaries.
The picture is a higher ceiling but a narrower window. Mercedes will keep the package in Austin. If it works, the fight ends early. If it fights him, his rivals get a door and we know who is waiting for that door gap.
Case file 1 George Russell
Gap 102 points. Russell has the same car, the same engine and the same team. On paper, that makes him the biggest threat. However, the numbers say something else. Even if Russell wins all six remaining races, Antonelli would still have to finish around sixth every single time for Russell to catch him.
Here is the odd part. Russell ran the old Baku spec in Singapore, and in sprint qualifying it was about six tenths quicker than Antonelli’s new car. He sat just a tenth off Verstappen’s sprint pole. Then he took the lead in the sprint and crashed out. The old car is easier to drive, but he needs it to stay in one piece.
Singapore made things worse. Russell started from the back with a 60 place grid penalty, finished ninth and scored two points. He also expects another engine penalty before the season ends. Russell does not need luck, he needs a miracle. The cruel part is that Mercedes trouble hurts both of its drivers.
Case file 2 Lewis Hamilton
Gap 111 points. Hamilton wants a record eighth title, but he admitted there is no stopping Antonelli after he retired in Spain. Then Singapore went badly too. He started third, chose a one stop strategy on old soft tyres, and dropped to sixth. He apologised to the team afterwards and took the responsibility.
Ferrari’s biggest problem is the engine. Fred Vasseur puts the gap to Mercedes and Red Bull at one or two tenths a lap. A second engine upgrade with a redesigned turbo arrived at Monza, yet top speed is still a weakness. Austin brings the last big chassis package of the year.
Vasseur has pointed at Red Bull as the car to beat. Ferrari would need to become the fastest team almost overnight. Antonelli would also need to score almost nothing. And Ferrari still makes strategy mistakes like they are very popular for that, which can cost more than any upgrade can gain.
Case file 3 Max Verstappen
Gap 119 points. Verstappen is the story of the moment. He has won back to back races, and Singapore was a lights to flag win. Russell himself called Red Bull the team to beat. Max woke up, and everyone noticed.
Red Bull has the engine edge. The FIA judged the Red Bull Ford unit the benchmark, so Red Bull gets no catch up upgrades. In Singapore it added a new front wing with a revised endplate and flaps for more front load. Verstappen took pole by just 0.054 seconds.
The race showed the pace in hand. He pitted on lap 33 from softs to mediums and still came out in front. Leclerc took fresh softs under a virtual safety car and could not close a 17 second gap. That is a car with speed to spare.
Last year he lost the title to Lando Norris by just two points, so he knows how fast a gap can close. This year, however, Red Bull started badly. After ten rounds Verstappen was seventh and 113 points behind. That hole is simply too deep.
Even six wins in a row would not be enough unless Antonelli scores fewer than 31 points across those six races. The real prize is next year, because Red Bull’s new wind tunnel is due in December. Verstappen can win races now and fight for the title in 2027.
The verdict
Leclerc is 125 points back and is fighting for the places behind the leaders. McLaren are out of it, with Norris 139 points behind. That leaves three men with a dream and one man with the trophy in sight.
So here is the call. The Kimi Antonelli championship is his to lose, and only bad luck can take it from him, not a rival. Verstappen will win races, Russell and Hamilton will collect podiums, but none of them will take the title. It would take a run of failures, penalties and wrong calls.
Our bet is that Antonelli is champion in Mexico or soon after, and the youngest the sport has ever seen. Until then, keep an eye on Austin. One bad weekend is all it takes to make this story interesting again.
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